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ON TUESDAY, the Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors may vote to rezone the Mullins-farm property to allow development of Ray Smith's mixed-use Town of Chancellorsville on a 790-acre tract next door to the same-named battlefield. Before then, supervisors should wrestle with several crucial questions, including these:
(1) Does the track record of the developer justify reasonable confidence that his beautiful storyboards for the project will translate into reality? Preservationists and other opponents of the Town of Chancellorsville are highlighting the failure of Dogwood Development Group, Mr. Smith's firm, and a partner to deliver a $170 million, historically sensitive development in Fairfax City, which in 1999 gave them exclusive permission to revitalize the town. Recently, Fairfax City reopened the job to bids. Opponents also point to a bankruptcy in Mr. Smith's past and his handing off to another company the development rights he won for a project in Loudoun County, with the result that what Mr. Smith presented wasn't what got built.
Well, George Washington lost battles, Babe Ruth struck out, Harry Truman went broke. It's the successes in life that count, along with character. What does Mr. Smith's business record, taken as a whole, tell us about his character?
(2) How would the project affect the traffic flow on State Route 3? The traffic between Fredericksburg and Chancellor already can cost motorists much time, the thief of life. The Town of Chancellorsville would make the road the first flip card on any TripTik for 5,000 or so more vehicles. Mr. Smith foresees the Outer Connector siphoning off a lot of this traffic. Even with the Route 3 widening he might fund, the Outer Connector indeed would be needed to prevent a chronic crawl along the highway. What if the controversial bypass isn't built?
(3) Do supervisors see wisdom in Ronald Reagan's axiom "trust, but verify"? Mr. Smith's vision is inspiring--homes swaddled in greenspace; charming stores and restaurants integrated "neotraditionally" with houses, apartments, workplaces; upscale hotels that would discharge tourists onto the battlefield. But what failsafes can the county install to prevent an expedient downgrade of this developmental Nirvana?
(4) The Town of Chancellorsville would comport with the county's Comprehensive Plan, which calls for heavy development in a few places and little or none in most others. The project is offered as an alternative to still more Route 3 sprawl, nationally noted for its ugliness. But what besides a document reflecting current intentions would prevent--as in remove from the realm of mortal possibility--a gigantic new project plus unabated sprawl?
(5) Mr. Smith is poised to buy the tract at issue because preservationists, now roused, have failed for years to put up a sufficiently attractive offer. Would that change? Or would John Mullins, blocked from selling to Dogwood, cut a deal with one of the unimaginative developers who have long feasted on the county's low aesthetic standards?
(6) Is there a realistic chance that the Chancellorsville area could become the "Gettysburg of the South"--a place where the land itself tells a compelling story? The area's battlefield parks--essentially open fields--don't rise to that level, a fact reflected in the two battlefields' comparative visitorships. Could the Town of Chancellorsville, with inns and other amenities, be a part of a grander presentation? Or would it get in the way of marketable historical resurrection?
Perhaps Spotsylvania supervisors have satisfied themselves about the answers to these and other questions. If not, maybe Tuesday is too early for a vote on the future of the past.