Time to replace the space shuttle

Date published: 1/26/2006

EIGHTY YEARS AGO, the U.S. Postal Service, watching the growth of the aviation industry, thought it was time to start delivering long-distance mail by air. They first asked the Army to do the job. Unfortunately, though, the Army, not set up to provide a commercial service, just didn't do that well at it. The Postal Service then tried carrying it themselves, and the U.S. Airmail Service came into being.

The Airmail Service lasted a few years, but it was expensive, and by the mid-1920s, many thought the time was right to turn this service over to the private sector. After prodding from Congress, the post office began awarding mail contracts to small aviation companies. The approach, innovative and untested at the time, was successful, and this collaboration between the private sector and government provided the impetus for the formation of what would become the modern airline industry.

A similar shift may be ready to occur when it comes to spaceflight. But instead of aircraft made of canvas and wood, the future is all about composites, new designs, new propulsion technologies, and most of all, a new entrant into the world of space flight, the private sector.

But first NASA, and the entire spaceflight establishment, needs to change the way it views the future. Right now, NASA considers its future to be a lot like its past with large heavy-duty space vehicles built by the large contractors it has worked with for years. Unfortunately, though, this model for the future of spaceflight is breaking down.

When I watched the shuttle Discovery lift off in May, I experienced a new emotion. Not the anticipation and excitement I had felt back in 1981 when the shuttle first lifted off, but rather a sense of dread. A feeling that the odds of something bad happening were a lot larger than they needed to be. Also, for the first time, I was beginning to believe that the risks simply didn't justify the costs.

Date published: 1/26/2006