County belts may tighten this budget season.
New construction has slowed, meaning smaller increases in revenue.
Cash flow will still increase, because new construction hasn't stopped. The revenue may cover basic inflation and some expansion of county programs, but there will be less money for new expenses.
"There is growth in the tax base, but not what it has historically been," said Stafford County Administrator Steve Crosby. "Is it going to be a tough budget year? Yes, it is, but it's certainly not a catastrophic situation."
Stafford has seen real estate dollars increase by an average of 6 percent each year, since at least 2001. County officials expect to report a 3.5 percent increase for the 2007 budget cycle. That's about a $2 million difference.
Spotsylvania budget officials would not discuss revenue projections until supervisors see the numbers Feb. 27.
Supervisors ultimately decide how to balance revenue changes with their constituents' expectations for services and what taxpayers can afford. Most have yet to decide whether services or taxpayers will feel the squeeze this year.
But already, at least one official, Stafford Supervisor Pete Fields, is considering a tax increase.
"No matter how you try to slice the pie, there's really no other way to do it," he said.
"When you start contemplating a reduction in level of services, you really don't come up with much that you can live without."
He first discussed the issue on Newstalk 1230's Fredericksburg Today show last Monday.
"One of the problems, of course, for a high-growth county relying on real estate taxes, is that it only sort of works if the value of real estate is appreciating at a hyper-inflation kind of rate," he said on air. "I'm going to tell you, I don't see any way to create a just government for the citizens of Stafford without a real estate tax increase."
Fields was one of two board members who opposed the 63-cent real estate tax set last year. He said it did not generate enough money for schools.
Jack Cavalier, chairman of the Stafford board, opposed the rate for the same reasons.
Early revenue projections are a cautionary note, Cavalier said. But it's too early to tell how the board might make up any shortfalls.
"Estimates change," Cavalier said. "What's true today may be very different months from now when we finalize the budget."
Other board members say county departments will have to work within what residents can afford.
"Governments have a tendency to grow too big. It's easy to raise taxes every year to cover what are characterized as needs of all the departments," said Stafford Supervisor Paul Milde. "I believe the only way to limit the size of government is to give it less money."
In Spotsylvania County, some supervisors are counting on business growth to equalize the slow down in new construction. Board members have told County Administrator Randy Wheeler to craft the 2008 budget without raising the real estate tax rate of 62 cents per $100 of assessed value.
"With all of the commercial growth we have had in the county it would seem to me that somehow we should be able to balance the budget without increasing taxes," said Spotsylvania Supervisor Emmitt Marshall.
Staff reporter Dan Telvock contributed to this report
Meghann Cotter: 540/374-5434