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RICHMOND--When
Ostensibly, Bloomberg has been sending private investigators, armed with hidden cameras, into Virginia to show that weapons sold illegally by local gun stores are being used for criminal activity in the Big Apple. As mayor, the mega billionaire says he has an obligation, using even highly controversial sting operations, to persuade Virginia officials to crack down on this practice.
But the mayor didn't become Wall Street's savviest investor by believing secret "gotcha raids" are going to increase cross-border cooperation. Predictably, the reaction was the opposite: The Virginia General Assembly passed legislation making these activities to find illegal weapons illegal themselves!
The mayor's spokeswoman said this was unfortunate, but of course Bloomberg was delighted. He is suspected, at least by this author, of planning to use the gun-control issue as a central plank in his run for president as a moderate Republican independent--should Rudy Giuliani fail to win the GOP nomination.
Bloomberg has already put together an impressive coalition of local officials and police chiefs across the country to fight for his beliefs under the rubric of Mayors Against Illegal Guns. Among those in Bloomberg's corner are five mayors from Virginia, including Doug Wilder of Richmond.
Many top Democrats believe Al Gore lost to George Bush because the former vice president was viewed as insufficiently "pro-gun" in several Southern states.
Since then, Democrats have urged candidates to be more pro-gun, and this can be seen in the stances of the party's presidential contenders--as they try to court moderately conservative swing voters in key Southern and Midwestern states.
Advisors to Bloomberg are known to feel he has been given an opportunity to be Mr. Gun Control in a three-way, putting the Democratic presidential candidate in a very difficult posture. Presuming a reliably NRA-endorsed Republican to his right, such a Bloomberg posture leaves the Democratic presidential nominee with a possible Hobson's choice on an issue of potentially great importance to urban citizens generally and suburban women particularly.
Staying to the right of Bloomberg on this often emotional issue could push gun-control backers to the New York City mayor. Yet if the Democratic candidate tacks to the left, he or she may find many months of building a more moderate image wasted, since the gun-control issue has often been a cultural litmus test for key moderate swing voters.
In the end, Bloomberg may not run, and the gun-control issue could fade as a key presidential-year issue. But it is naive to think the New Yorker has his agents down here looking only for illegal guns. He is looking for votes--although not in Virginia or the South, where he has no realistic chance of winning in a three-way race.
Rather, he using the Old Dominion as target practice, trying to impress voters in the East and Midwest with his commitment to stop gun violence.
Could it be a winning issue for him? In a three-way race, passion matters. If 40 percent of the people believe you are the only candidate speaking to them on their big issue, this can be very powerful. Historically, NRA voters have been "single-issue," basing their votes on the gun question.
This has not been true for gun-control supporters.
Should Mike Bloomberg create a political dynamic where far more voters base their ballots on gun control, he could become the choice of many gun-control backers who might otherwise back a Democrat in a two-way race. The NRA and Bloomberg each therefore has a lot to gain by being seen fighting the other.
Eventually, Bloomberg can be expected to make the case against all of Virginia's gun laws, especially the one allowing weapons on school property. True, it applies only to a handful of rare situations. But in our sound-bite culture, guns anywhere near the classroom for any purpose take on a far wider political meaning.
So get ready for a lot more gun running in Virginia if Mike Bloomberg goes for the White House. He will be using us for target practice, while trying to hit the political bull's-eye hundreds of miles away.
Paul Goldman is a political consultant.