BY CHELYEN DAVIS
RICHMOND--If actor Fred Thompson enters the presidential race, Virginia Republicans can say they knew him when.
Or saw him, at least.
Thompson is headlining the Republican Party of Virginia's annual fundraiser in Richmond tonight.
The folksy former senator from Tennessee yesterday filed papers establishing a preliminary campaign committee that would enable him to raise money and hire staff without officially committing to a bid and without having to publicly disclose donations or expenditures.
He also this week announced he was quitting his regular spot on "Law and Order."
Shaun Kenney, spokesman for the RPV, said talk of Thompson's interest in running have boosted press attendance at the gala.
"This is going to be the first speech he's going to give post the testing-the-waters committee that he formed," Kenney said. .
Kenney added that the RPV isn't taking sides in the nomination race, and that other candidates are also scheduled to speak at various events in Virginia this year.
George Mason University political analyst Mark Rozell said Thompson, as a conservative candidate, could have broad appeal to Republicans, especially those in Virginia.
"This is a guy with star power, with very strong name recognition, and for those Republicans who are in a none-of-the above mood looking at the current crop of candidates, he's currently very appealing," Rozell said. "When I keep looking at Thompson in relationship to the three supposed front-runners, from the Virginia GOP perspective I think he's really strong."
Rozell said Thompson's strengths here are that he's a conservative and he has Southern roots.
Rudy Guiliani may prove too liberal for many Virginia Republicans, he said; conservatives have "never trusted [Sen. John] McCain," and Mitt Romney has few roots in this area.
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato also said Thompson's ties in neighboring Tennessee should help him in Virginia.
"He's a credible candidate for Virginia. Being a senator from a neighboring state will bring him some backing in various parts of Virginia," Sabato said.
"I could see him doing well. It's no accident he's giving this speech. He may be the most broadly acceptable of the four top candidates. "
But the choice of Virginia Republicans may be moot by the time the state holds its primary next February.
Other states, in an effort to be more influential in the primary process, have backed up their primary dates , and now Virginia's primary may come after a candidate has the nomination sewn up.
"It's tough to say for the primary because by the time the Virginia primary comes around, the odds are pretty good that the nomination battle will be resolved," Sabato said.
Kenney said there are so many unusual factors in the race for the 2008 nomination that it's impossible to tell whether Virginia's vote will have an impact or not.
Those factors include new methods of communication, early candidate announcements, and high fundraising totals, as well as the earlier primaries.
"We just don't know. Feb. 12 used to be kind of early. Now it seems kind of late in the cycle," Kenney said. "It could be, in a field this crowded with candidates announcing as early as they have, that Virginia could very well be the kingmaker. On the other hand the candidate could already have been decided."
Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362