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For D's and R's, Virginia is likely to matter

February 2, 2008 12:16 am

THE IDEA was simple enough--select the presidential nominees for each party early in the process so they have most of the year to campaign. Alas, the best-laid plans of mice and men--and politicians--often go awry.

The idea was to "frontload" the campaign calendar, slating most primaries and caucuses before mid-February. The states liked the notion of going earlier, getting attention from the candidates, and "having a say" early on.

The candidates also liked that schedule, because it promised to create a momentum that could sweep them to the nomination. The theory was that if a candidate won a couple of early contests, he or she could ride that propulsion into the next ones--especially those on Super Tuesday, which this year falls on Feb. 5.

On Super Tuesday, just three days from now, voters in 22 states will cast ballots in either primaries or caucuses, selecting half the total number of delegates to the two parties' conventions.

As we head into Tuesday, however, it is clear that things did not go as planned. None of the candidates is likely to win so many states that his remaining opponents--at least the serious ones--will drop out.

So a protracted battle for each nomination is at hand, with both parties offering similar candidates.

Two candidates are running as agents of change. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is offering a new way to do things in Washington. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney likewise is running on change. His message is that he is an "outsider" who can bring new ideas to the capital. This is the same message used by Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

Obama and Romney are targeting states in the middle of the country, and should win many of them. In the Democratic contests, remember, delegates are awarded proportionally, so Obama will receive delegates even in a state he loses.

Challenging them are two candidates running on experience, Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and John McCain, R-Ariz. Both say they can bring about change because of their years of experience. Both are using a similar strategy for Super Tuesday--a coastal plan. They will target the East Coast--especially Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey--as well as California on the West Coast.

Of course, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will try to win some Southern states.

The past week has offered some interesting events that will affect Tuesday's results.

The South Carolina win by Obama.

The size and diversity of his coalition dispelled attempts by the Clintonites to marginalize him as an African-American candidate. He demonstrably has a broader base.

The Florida results.

Granted, Clinton won, but those who decided during the last few days leading up to the vote went in big numbers for Obama. Exit polls suggest that the recent endorsements he garnered played a significant role in these people's votes.

The Kennedy endorsements.

Not only did these help in Florida, they offer im- portant possibilities for future contests. Since Iowa, Hillary Clinton has been outpolling Obama among women, Hispanics, and the elderly. The Kennedy anointments help with all three groups.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., has long been a champion of women's and Hispanic issues. Having Caroline Kennedy, the assassinated president's daughter, on the campaign trail with Obama--not to mention her presence in ads--should help Obama with those constituencies.

More important, many elderly voters, particularly Democrats, remember the presidency of JFK, and perhaps even voted for him. Caroline Kennedy invokes memories of those times. If Obama can peel away segments of these voters from Hillary, he can damage the Clinton strategy.

How will the Republicans resolve their dilemma?

Some conservatives have difficulties with both Romney and McCain, the lead- ing GOP contenders. Do such conservatives try to coalesce behind Huckabee? Do they bite the bullet and choose Romney? McCain? In Florida they split among all three men. Conserva- tives can go any of three ways.

This unexpected chaos will survive Super Tuesday and head straight for the Old Dominion, which holds its primaries Feb 12. Given the state's diverse population and interests, no candidate is likely to be a prohibitive favorite here.

Which means?

Your vote will matter.

Tom Coen teaches history at Brooke Point High School. He is a former candidate for the Stafford County Board of Supervisors.