- EDEL TRIPP/THE FREE LANCE-STAR

Why isn't Fredericksburg a Metropolitan Statistical Area?

HOWARD OWEN

Date published: 3/9/2008

HOWARD OWEN

How does a place establish its identity? What makes a city and its surrounding area an entity unto itself rather than just a handful of unconnected dots in the national consciousness?

The federal government has a way. It's called the metropolitan statistical area, or MSA. And, by this standard, the Fredericksburg area is more or less invisible.

An MSA is defined as a core area containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core. MSAs are determined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.

Blacksburg-Christiansburg is an MSA. So are Danville and Lynchburg. As a matter of fact, eight MSAs in Virginia are smaller than the population of Fredericksburg and the counties of Spotsylvania, Stafford, Caroline and King George. (See map on D8.) Those localities form the Fredericksburg Regional Alliance, an entity that promotes growth in the area.

But the FRA doesn't make the list, except in pieces. Fredericksburg, Stafford and Spotsylvania are part of the Washington MSA, which includes the district and areas of Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Caroline is part of the Richmond MSA. King George isn't in an MSA.

We seem to be caught in the middle.

In 2006, there were an estimated 309,000 people in the five localities of the FRA, slightly more than in the Roanoke region (295,000.)

Why aren't we a separate MSA? Apparently, the part about "social and economic integration" makes us a non-starter. Too many people commute, mostly northward.

According to 2004 figures, more than 60 percent of Fredericksburg residents who work are employed within the FRA. In Spotsylvania, it falls under 60 percent, and in Stafford, it's just over 40 percent.

This could be misleading, says Gene Bailey, president of the FRA, because some 18,000 people come into the FRA from outside its boundaries to work.

Bailey also points out that, while there are advantages to being part of a separate MSA, "Sometimes it's nice to say we're part of the MSA of Washington."

Andy Hagy, director of commercial real estate company GVA Advantis, says it hurts us not to be our own MSA because, "If Fredericksburg has its own MSA, we have self-identity, rather than being caught up in the Washington MSA. On the outer edge of a major metropolitan area, we just get lost in the shuffle. We're on the page, but it doesn't clearly identify our own market."

Howard Owen: 540/374-5539
Email: howen@freelancestar.com

WHERE DO WE RANK? With 309,000 people (2006 U.S. Census Bureau estimate), the localities in the Fredericksburg Regional Alliance are about the same size as these metropolitian statistical areas: Ann Arbor, Mich. 344,000 Tallahassee, Fla. 337,000 Savannah, Ga. 320,000 South Bend, Ind. 318,000 Ocala, Fla. 316,000 Naples-Marcos Island, Fla. 315,000 Fredericksburg 309,000 Charleston, W.Va. 306,000 Green Bay, Wis. 299,000 Utica-Rome, N.Y. 297,000 Columbus, Ga. 289,000 Lincoln, Neb. 284,000 Boulder, Colo. 282,000 Erie, Pa. 280,000 Atlantic City, N.J. 271,000 WHO DECIDES? The Office of Management and Budget makes the call. U.S. Census Bureau statistics are used. WHAT ARE THE CRITERIA? Metropolitan statistical areas have "at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measure by commuting ties," according to the OMB. (The 50,000 don't have to be one locality. See Blacksburg-Christiansburg.) WHEN IS IT UPDATED? Later this year, the OMB will review the way it defines MSAs. The new standards should be announced by the end of 2010. OMB expects the new list of MSAs will be announced in 2012 or 2013, using 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data. WHY DO WE CARE? According to Andy Hagy of GVA Advantis, a lot of searches by commercial real estate companies and others center on MSAs. "All the rest would see us on the list as one market rather than a submarket." Also, it is very difficult to get a demographic picture of our area when it extends from somewhere in West Virginia to here. Many federal government reports on areas such as housing and employment are broken down by MSA. IF WE WERE AN MSA According to 2006 U.S. Census Bureau estimates, eight Virginia metropolitan statistical areas are smaller than the combined population of the localities that are part of the Fredericksburg Regional Alliance (Fredericksburg, Caroline County, King George County, Spotsylvania County and Stafford County). The population estimates are for the entire metropolitan statistical areas and not just the cities themselves.

Date published: 3/9/2008