Fredericksburg-area housing data show rising market in 2000-06, then sharp drop

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BY BILL FREEHLING

Date published: 4/14/2008

BY BILL FREEHLING

A look at Fredericksburg-area sales data for this decade reveals the dramatic increases in home prices and total sales from 2000 to 2006, and the sharp declines since then.

Below are among the area-wide findings. The "Fredericksburg area" is defined as the city and Spotsylvania, Caroline, Stafford and King George counties, as well as part of Westmoreland.

Median sales prices nearly tripled between the lows seen early this decade and the peaks of 2005-06, when area-wide median prices neared $350,000.

In 2004, median monthly sales prices shot up nearly 32 percent between January and December. Prices kept rising until they hit their peak monthly total of $349,990 in June 2006.

The peak sales months occurred a year before prices hit their highs. June 2005 was the peak month for home sales this decade, with 936 area houses selling for a total of about $341 million.

The median sales price last month was about 24 percent below peak prices. But the March 2008 median of $265,000 is still double the levels at the beginning of the decade.

The 175 homes sold in January 2008 were the fewest this decade. Of the 10 slowest months for units sold this decade, six have come since last September. Last month saw upticks in sales from the six months before.

The roughly $52 million in sales this past January was about an 85 percent drop-off from the June 2005 peak and the lowest since February 2002. Sales volume rose to about $81 million last month.

That sharp drop-off has had an effect on numerous area businesses dependent on housing. It has probably played a role in the declining membership of the Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors, which went from 1,853 members in December 2006 to 1,488 last month.

Between May 2005 and August 2005, area homes spent an average of 28 days or less on the market before selling. Houses are now spending about 138 days on the market before selling.

During the boom, homes were selling for close to 100 percent of their list prices. Since this past October, homes have been selling for 10 percent less than list prices, on average.

January and February tend to be the worst months for sales, while June through August have been the busiest months this decade. The same trends hold true for time on the market and median prices.

The Free Lance-Star reviewed area housing data from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems for each month since 2000. We looked at sales prices, sales volumes, time on market and relationships between list and sales prices. The data, which include charts and figures, can be found in an Excel spreadsheet at fredericksburg .com/blogs/bizbrowser There were 1,488 members in the Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors as of March, according to CEO Pat Breme. Here are membership numbers from the past seven Decembers: 2001: 795 2002: 931 2003: 1,084 2004: 1,394 2005: 1,818 2006: 1,853 2007: 1,704

Date published: 4/14/2008

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