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By CHELYEN DAVIS
RICHMOND--
In a month, state Republicans will meet to choose a U.S. Senate candidate. But the two contenders are already counting heads, and both claim to have a lead.Former Gov. Jim Gilmore and Del. Bob Marshall are vying for the nomination to replace retiring GOP Sen. John Warner. The winner will face Demcratic former governor Mark Warner in November's general election.
Gilmore, who was elected governor in 1997 on his "no car tax" pledge, is running largely on a platform of controlling government spending, limiting taxes and improving the economy.
Marshall, who represents Prince William County in the House of Delegates, has a lengthy record of social-issue conservatism. He's known for opposition to abortion and to gay marriage, and says that Gilmore is not pro-life enough for many Republicans.
Republicans chose a convention to decide between Gilmore and Marshall, which means local Republican committees are meeting to pick people to go to the convention as delegates.
The convention is May 30-31 in Richmond.
There are 10,519 delegate votes, according to Republican Party of Virginia spokesman Josh Noland. About 80 percent of them had been chosen by the end of last week. Interest among Republicans is high, thanks also in part to a hotly contested race for Republican Party chairman between former Lt. Gov. John Hager and Del.
There is no requirement for those delegates to choose which candidate they're backing until they get to the convention floor.
BOTH CLAIM TO LEAD
But both candidates have been heavily canvassing the delegates, asking for informal commitments. And both claim that based on that, they think they're going to win.
Gilmore last week sent out a press release saying he had the commitment of at least 6,000 delegates, which is just over the number he would need to win.
"A clear majority of the convention delegates representing more than 6,000 votes have committed to support Governor Gilmore," Matt Wells, Gilmore's campaign political director, said in the statement. "A solid turnout at the GOP convention will be needed to seal victory. We have been able to activate a statewide organization almost overnight, and the depth of our strength can be seen in strong pro-Gilmore delegations from every part of Virginia."
But Marshall claims Gilmore's math is wrong.
He responded later in the week with his own press release, calling Gilmore's head count "baloney.
"It's practically impossible for the Gilmore campaign to have polled so many thousands of delegates in so short a time--and that with supreme confidence that enough of them will stick with their commitment for a Gilmore victory at the convention more than five weeks from now," the Marshall campaign wrote. "Then there's the consideration that the Gilmore claim differs substantially from our own estimate (with opposite results) in areas where we're fairly sure of our numbers--and many delegates, previously for Gilmore, have been switching recently to Bob Marshall as they learn more about where the two candidates stand on important issues."
Marshall spokesman Bill Kling said in a telephone interview that it's useless to declare a victory when five weeks remain before the convention, giving both sides plenty of time to sway delegate votes.
"Frankly, numbers are going to change over the next five weeks," Kling said. "Once the delegates are elected and we know who they are, there will be an effort to contact these people and talk to them."
CHASING THE DELEGATES
Gilmore's campaign is, of course, doing the same thing.
"As Delegate Marshall knows, just in the process of finding delegates and registering delegates, from the outset you have a base number of people who sign up," said Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal.
She said the Gilmore staff has done internal canvassing, which is how they determined that they had more than 6,000 delegate votes. Staffers are reaching out to delegates, answering any questions they may have, and making sure that Gilmore supporters remain Gilmore supporters.
They're also working to ensure turnout, Gamonal said--a delegate's vote isn't worth much if that delegate doesn't show up at the convention.
"All our delegates obviously need to show up, but provided that that happens we've reached the magic number," she said.
Since such canvassing is internal, it can be hard to tell which man has an edge in which area of the state.
But in the Fredericksburg area, Marshall appears to be leading.
MARSHALL STRONG HERE
Spotsylvania Republican committee chairman Bryce Reeves said that of 133 delegates, 118--about 88 percent--are Marshall supporters, as is Reeves himself.
Marshall supporter Herb Lux said his polling indicates that Marshall leads among Stafford and Fredericksburg delegates as well.
While Gilmore is the better-known candidate, Reeves thinks Marshall has built an impressive grass-roots organization.
"I think people are going to be very surprised, in the sense that I think Bob Marshall is doing a lot better than people are giving credit for," Reeves said. "It'll be very interesting to see how this plays out."
Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com
