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Gilmore
Warner |
BY CHELYEN DAVIS
HOT SPRINGS
--Virginia's two major-party candidates for the U.S. Senate will have their first real face-to-face showdown of the campaign today.Former Govs. Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner will debate at the Virginia Bar Association's annual meeting at The Homestead resort in Bath County. Gilmore, the Republican, was governor from 1998 to 2002. Warner, the Democrat, followed him.
Warner has been campaigning as a problem-solver who will focus on bipartisanship to get things done. Gilmore is running as a tax-cutter who understands working-class problems.
For Gilmore, who lags badly in fundraising and the polls, the debate is a chance to jab Warner while getting free media coverage.
"The only possible way that Gilmore can make inroads is to generate controversy, and to have Warner commit a serious gaffe," said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato. "Gilmore has to attack, attack, attack. I don't think he'll hold back."
Warner will want to brush aside those attacks and avoid saying anything
"Warner's goal is to make sure that it's a one-day story, which means saying as little as possible and hoping that Gilmore lands few blows," Sabato said.
Indeed, Gilmore started swinging early, sending out a news release this week reminding voters "not to expect any straight talk from Mark Warner" and linking to a video of Warner's 2001 campaign promise not to raise taxes.
Warner did, in fact, raise taxes two years later, in a package that included spending cuts. He said his plan would help cure a "structural imbalance" in the state's revenues.
Gilmore, as governor, made the car-tax cut his signature issue. Democrats say it has been a drain on the state's finances.
In addition to taxes, energy issues promise to be a provocative topic.
Gilmore is pushing a "drill here, drill now" mantra, promising to push for oil drilling offshore and in Alaska.
Warner opposes drilling in Alaska, but is more nuanced when it comes to offshore oil. He supports exploring, but not necessarily drilling.
Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal mentioned both energy and taxes as issues Gilmore will push in the debate.
"We've heard a lot about what [Warner] claims he did as Virginia governor, but we've heard little about what kind of senator he claims he'd be," Gamonal said. "We're very much looking forward to being able to illustrate to Virginia voters the differences between Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner."
Warner spokesman Kevin Hall said Warner, too, will be trying to draw a contrast between himself and Gilmore.
"Governor Warner is anxious to discuss his positive vision for the nation and to compare his record of results and bipartisan leadership with the record and style of our opponent," Hall said.
Of course, all this will take place out of the public eye, in front of a group of lawyers and the news media, in the middle of summer vacation season.
The election isn't until Nov. 4, and campaigns generally don't heat up until after Labor Day, Sabato noted.
"The only time I can ever remember that this debate really mattered was when Gilmore pursued his car-tax plan and that did last till November," he said. "So maybe Gilmore has something to launch."
Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com
