THERE IS A big difference between issuing a warning and crying
Last week, for example, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin watched Hurricane Gustav churn through the Gulf of Mexico and declared, "This is the mother of all storms!"
That statement, we now know, turned out to be false. Gustav was a formidable force when it hit the Louisiana coast, but it was far from the "mother of all storms."
Andrew, Camille, Agnes, the Galveston hurricane of 1900, the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, the New England hurricane of 1938 and Katrina--they were all far more potent than Gustav.
Nagin's "mother of all storms" declaration was designed, of course, to throw a scare into the inhabitants of New Orleans and get them out of the city. It worked.
But will they leave the next time "the mother of all storms" is declared to be on the horizon?
I doubt it.
In overstating the likely effects of Gustav, Nagin frightened the people into abandoning the city. He cried "wolf!" and the wolf didn't show up. A growling dog, maybe, but certainly not a wolf. Katrina was the Crescent City's wolf.
Nagin's reasoning was clear. He didn't want another disaster like Katrina and that is understandable.
But government also must give the public some credit for brains. Like Nagin, Katrina was fresh on the minds of everyone in New Orleans and no one was interested in going through a similar
The fact that the city provided transportation for folks to leave should be applauded. That Nagin declared Gustav to be "the mother of all storms" may lead only to future disasters.
History is likely to show that Katrina was a fluke,
In time, another devastating hurricane will almost certainly hit New Orleans. That event, however, may
The 1900 Galveston hurricane, which killed more than 6,000 people, is a good example. There has not been another such storm to hit that island city in 108 years. All those who were there at the turn of the 20th century are now dead.
Over the years, New Orleans will once again become complacent and each time some mayor cries, "This is the mother of all storms!" the public will take him less and less seriously.
In Nagin's defense, Gustav was packing winds of 150 mph when he made his statement and the storm was still well out in the Gulf at the time. At that moment, it was extremely healthy and had a well-defined eye.
The health of a hurricane 500 miles from its ultimate landfall, however, often bears little resemblance to the storm's condition when it actually hits.
Tropical systems live independent lives. They gain and lose strength depending on outside influences. The storms that are big in the ocean often weaken significantly before hitting land.
Occasionally, however, the opposite is true. Some storms, like Andrew in 1992, rapidly gain strength as they approach land.
To call a hurricane well out over water "the mother of all storms" is a little dramatic. Such determination cannot be made until it hits. And it is the strength of a hurricane when it hits a populated area that is important.
The mother of all storms? Andrew packed winds of 200 mph. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 had winds of 185 mph. Camille in 1969 brought gusts up to 200 mph. These are the mothers of all storms.
Instead of appealing to the good judgment of the New Orleans population, Nagin cried "wolf!" The wolf didn't show and next time the people of the city will likely take their mayor less seriously.
And somewhere down the road, another tragedy is brewing.
Donnie Johnston:
Email: djohnston@freelancestar.com