Jesse McNeal (left) and the Wildcats will pull for the Eagles while the trying to defeat district rival Panthers tonight. ROBERT A. MARTIN/THE FREE LANCE-STAR Visit the Photo Place

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL 'Cats need good play, good luck THE PATH TO THE PLAYOFFS

High school football playoff scenarios

Date published: 11/6/2008

By Steve DeShazo

BY STEVE DeSHAZO

A share of the Commonwealth District football title may have to suffice for the Mountain View Wildcats, whose chances of making the Virginia High School League's playoffs are razor thin.

If Mountain View (5-4, 5-1) beats Massaponax tomorrow night, the Wildcats will be Commonwealth co-champions, along with the winner of the Brooke Point-Colonial Forge game. That would be quite an accomplishment for a program that won just one district game in its first three seasons.

But it won't guarantee the Wildcats a Division 6 playoff berth because of the VHSL's tiebreaker rules. So Mountain View will be rooting for Colonial Forge--and several other teams.

When teams tie for a district title, the one with the higher VHSL points rating gets an automatic playoff bid. Brooke Point's rating (28.6) is significantly higher than Mountain View's (24.7), so the Wildcats need a victory by Colonial Forge (24.3).

If Mountain View and Colonial Forge each win tomorrow night, the Eagles will have at least 259 points under the VHSL's complex system, which allots points for victories by teams and their season opponents.

Mountain View's maximum possible point total is 259. That would require a win over Massaponax and all of the following:

Freedom (2-7) beating Potomac (5-4);

Prince George (3-6) beating Petersburg (5-4);

Fauquier (7-2) beating Liberty (7-2);

And North Stafford (1-8) beating Stafford (4-5).

Mountain View also needs all of the following to occur to deny Colonial Forge rider points:

Woodbridge (9-0) beating Gar-Field (4-5);

Stonewall Jackson (2-7) beating Culpeper (0-9);

And Osbourn Park (4-5) beating Osbourn (5-4).

If Mountain View and Colonial Forge finish with 259 points each, the Wildcats will get an automatic Northwest Region, Division 6 bid as Commonwealth champion because they beat Colonial Forge on the field--the VHSL's second tiebreaker.

If so, Colonial Forge still could earn a Division 5 wild-card berth (and a first-round rematch with Brooke Point), if it outpoints Potomac (25.8) and G.W.-Danville (25.3).

If Colonial Forge wins and Mountain View loses, Colonial Forge gets an automatic Division 5 bid as outright Commonwealth champion.

Mountain View's tenuous situation is the result of a 1-4 start that included a forfeited win over Freedom after briefly using an ineligible player. Had the Wildcats kept that victory, their standing would be much stronger.

"Never once have our players blamed that young man or harbor hard feelings," coach Eric Cooke said yesterday. "We accepted it as a situation we were involved in, and we've moved on.

"If you look at where our program has been, after putting in four years of hard work and dedication, our seniors have got to feel like [a shared district title] would be worth it."

Steve DeShazo: 540/374-5443
Email: sdeshazo@freelancestar.com

THEY'RE IN Brooke Point Chancellor Colonial Beach Courtland Essex James Monroe Washington & Lee WIN TO GET IN Liberty Louisa NEED A WIN AND A LITTLE HELP Colonial Forge Mountain View Here's a quick look at the regional scenarios: NORTHWEST REGION, DIVISION 6 Battlefield (9-0, 32.9) and Woodbridge (9-0, 31.0) have clinched the top two seeds. The Vikings could vault to No. 1 with a win over Gar-Field (4-5) and some help. C.D. Hylton (6-3, 26.9) will be the third seed, and Osbourn (5-4, 24.9) will get the fourth--unless Mountain View makes it. NORTHWEST REGION, DIVISION 5 Brooke Point (8-1, 28.6) and William Fleming (8-1, 28.0) will host first-round games. The Black-Hawks must beat Colonial Forge to clinch the top seed. The winner of tomorrow night's county rivalry between Fauquier (7-2, 26.0) and Liberty (7-2, 25.1) will be the third seed; the loser is out. No. 4 will be either Colonial Forge, Potomac or G.W.-Danville. REGION I, DIVISION 4 Chancellor (9-0, 30.7) has clinched the top seed. Courtland (7-2, 25.2) is currently fourth, but if the Cougars beat James Monroe, they'll face Powhatan (8-1, 26.7) in the first round. Courtland would host that game if Powhatan loses to Brunswick (7-2). If Courtland loses to JM, Tabb (7-2, 25.4) can gain the third seed by beating Warhill (0-9) tonight and getting some help. REGION I, DIVISION 3 James Monroe (8-1, 25.4) can overtake Poquoson (7-2, 25.6) for the No. 1 seed by beating Courtland tomorrow night, or if the Islanders lose to Southampton (2-7). Brunswick (7-2, 22.0) could vault into the No. 3 seed with an upset of Southside District champion Powhatan. Otherwise, Nottoway (6-3, 22.6) and Bruton (6-3, 22.3) will battle for the final two spots. REGION II, DIVISION 4 Louisa (6-3, 23.9) should earn the fourth seed--and a first-round date at Broad Run (9-0, 29.1)--if the Lions beat winless William Monroe tomorrow. But Loudoun County (5-4, 22.9) could sneak in with a win over Heritage (6-3) and some help. James Wood (8-2, 25.1) will visit Potomac Falls (8-1, 28.1) in a first-round game. REGION A, DIVISION 2 Essex (9-0, 24.0) will be the top seed and Washington & Lee (8-2, 21.7) second. Windsor (5-3, 17.3) can gain the No. 3 seed by beating Franklin tomorrow; otherwise, King William (5-4, 17.8) likely will visit W&L in the first round. Lancaster (5-4, 15.9) has a slight chance at No. 4. REGION A, DIVISION 1 Colonial Beach (9-0, 22.2) is the top seed. Franklin (7-2, 19.7) likely will host Sussex Central (6-3, 19.0) in the first round. Northumberland (5-4, 16.3) could slip past West Point (17.3) for the final spot if the Indians beat Lancaster and the Pointers lose to Colonial Beach tomorrow night. Otherwise, the Drifters could host West Point in a first-round rematch.

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Date published: 11/6/2008