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What does vote mean for Virginia?

November 6, 2008 12:36 am

RICHMOND

So what does this mean for Virginia?

In a Washington where the new Democratic president is a good friend of Virginia's governor and considered both of the men who will be senators from Virginia for potential vice-presidential candidates, it means attention for Virginia.

"The good relationship that I've formed with Senator Obama, I can't imagine that's not going to be a benefit," said Gov. Tim Kaine, who was one of Obama's earliest backers.

Kaine didn't mention specific things he would ask Obama for in the future, but said he believes Obama understands what state governments need and how the federal government can help.

"I want a president who understands some things about how to manage an economy and get it moving," Kaine said. "And we have that in Senator Obama."

George Mason University political analyst Stephen Farnsworth said Obama's election is "extraordinarily good news" for Virginia because of Obama's relationships with Kaine, U.S. Sen. Jim Webb and now Senator-elect Mark Warner, and his experience campaigning extensively in the state.

"When you have friends in high places that can only help," Farnsworth said.

Webb has been in office only two years, and Warner will be a freshman senator, so while neither will run committees or have traditional power positions in the Senate, Farnsworth said they are both high-profile enough to be more effective for Virginia than perhaps some other newly minted senators.

The fact that it was a close race in Virginia for Obama--who wound up with 52 percent of the vote--is actually better than if Virginia were a reliably blue state, Farnsworth added, because it means Virginia needs to be tended and can't be taken for granted.

"Virginia is a state the Democrats would like to be able to keep in future years. I imagine an Obama administration will be much likelier to jump when Virginia asks for something than, say, Maryland," Farnsworth said. "Maryland's not going anywhere. Virginia's status as kind of a state that's on the fence also helps."

And despite Tuesday night's Democratic victories in the state, Virginia is indeed still an on-the-fence state, perhaps no longer red but not necessarily blue either.

"The future of Virginia remains up for grabs. If George Bush hadn't been so unpopular, if the economy hadn't been in a tailspin the last two months, the Democrats wouldn't have done as well: They might not even have won the state," Farnsworth said.

Kaine had said in interviews a week ago that he felt even if Obama won Virginia, it didn't indicate the state was Democratic but instead was another sign that Virginia voters are independent and want candidates who run on bipartisanship and problem-solving, instead of partisan ideology.

"If you are a problem-solver and you try to get people to work together, Virginians will reward that," Kaine said yesterday. "That's the kind of attitude they like. It's the kind of leadership we all need to be looking at in the state and nationally."

Kaine also acknowledged that voter antipathy toward Bush also helped Democrats this year.

"That was a huge dynamic," Kaine said. "The deep concern of Virginians about the direction of Washington under President Bush conditioned Virginians and Americans to want to make a change.

"It might have been tougher--it would have been tougher--for Barack to get elected president if Americans had not wanted to see very dramatic change."

Kaine said he thinks the Democratic momentum from Tuesday's elections can carry over into next year.

"Momentum is ultimately about ideas and about philosophy," he said. "'Solve problems, stick together'. That's been our strategy."

But in the next elections--such as Virginia's gubernatorial race next year--the dynamics may be different.

"The Republican Party certainly could win the state back in four years," Farnsworth said. "A Republican governor could be elected next year. A lot depends on what Republicans do in the next few weeks to respond."

He believes Virginia Republicans need to act fast to find a new message that resonates with younger voters and voters north of the Occoquan--Northern Virginia, an area with growing numbers of voters and declining numbers of Republicans.

"Young voters are not motivated by gay marriage and gun rights to the same extent that their parents and grandparents might have been," Farnsworth said. "There's a generational shift taking place here and this is where the Republican Party faces its greatest challenges.

"If the Republican Party's appeal is limited to middle-aged evangelical Christian voters and people who like guns, that's just not going to win too many elections statewide."

Chelyen Davis: 804/782-9362
Email: cdavis@freelancestar.com