Fall races for House expected to be close

Democrats push to win House seats

BY CHELYEN DAVIS

Date published: 7/5/2009

BY CHELYEN DAVIS

While this year's gubernatorial race will get the bulk of the attention, politicians will be waging 71 other skirmishes this year in the battle over state control.

The State Board of Elections has certified candidates for House of Delegates races, and 71 of the 100 seats are contested.

That's a big jump from recent years. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, there were just 41 contested House races two years ago, and 49 in 2005.

Of this year's contested races, 56 have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race, VPAP said.

Of course, having 71 races does not mean there are 71 close contests.

The ability of the majority party to draw district lines means that many districts lean heavily Republican or Democratic, making it difficult for a candidate of the other party to win.

Additionally, while there have been several retirements from the House this year, many incumbents are running for re-election, and incumbents almost always have an advantage.

And some of the races are contested by third-party candidates, who have an even tougher time getting elected than a candidate from one of the major parties. While the House has two independent members, it has none affiliated with any party other than Republican or Democratic.

"Really we're talking about a handful," said George Mason University political analyst Stephen Farnsworth. "A dozen truly, genuinely competitive seats."

For Republicans and Democrats alike, the House races are high-stakes. Democrats have control of the executive branch and the state Senate, and they'd like to win control of the House. They view the Republican-controlled House as the last roadblock to the legislation Democrats want to enact.

Republicans, naturally, would prefer to keep control of the House, their last bulwark against total Democratic domination.

The House currently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents, one of whom caucuses with the Republicans.

Several delegates from each side have announced their retirement this year, leaving 10 contested races without incumbents.

Democrats have made gains in recent years, and House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, D-Henry, said that fact, along with President Obama's winning the state last November, has helped spur candidate recruitment.

This year the Democrats have 70 House candidates, he said, the most in his 18 years in office.

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Date published: 7/5/2009