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Michael Gerson's column about the challenges ahead for the GOP in attracting Hispanic, Catholic voters.
WASHINGTON--The Catholic Church--a politically and ethnically sprawling institution--has no natural home on the American ideological spectrum. Neither major party combines moral conservatism with a passion for social justice. So Catholic leaders have often challenged Democrats to be more pro-life and Republicans to be more concerned about immigrants and the poor.
But President Obama's first term was a period of unexpected aggression against the rights of religious institutions. His Justice Department, in the Hosanna-Tabor case, argued against the existence of any "ministerial exception" to employment rules. Obama tried to mandate that Catholic schools, hospitals, and charities offer insurance coverage for contraceptives and abortifacients. His revised policy still asserts a federal power to declare some religious institutions secular in purpose, reducing them to second-rate status under the First Amendment.
On top of this, Obama ran a stridently pro-abortion re-election campaign, seeking culture-war advantage on an issue he seldom mentioned four years ago.
The Catholic hierarchy and more traditional Catholic laymen reacted as you'd expect. Bishops issued pastoral letters in defense of religious liberty. Conservative and pro-life groups organized in battleground states.
The result? According to the first cut of exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center, Obama's support among white Catholics fell to 40 percent--seven points lower than four years ago. It was one of the largest swings of any portion of the electorate. John Green of the University of Akron argues that
In a close election, this reaction might have made all the difference. But the election wasn't particularly close. And the trend among white Catholics was partially offset by Latino Catholics moving in the opposite direction for reasons unrelated to abortion or religious freedom. (Obama gained three points among Hispanic Catholics and took three-quarters of their votes.) In the end, Obama won the total Catholic vote by a small margin.
This result reveals a tension at the heart of the Republican coalition. The portion of that coalition that is pushing away Latino Catholics is making the political work of conservative Catholics far more difficult.