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Odds against missing IRS emails


Date published: 7/16/2014

The odds of winning the Florida lottery are 1 in 22,957,480.

The odds of winning the Powerball are 1 in 175,223,510.

The odds of a computer disk drive failing in any given month are roughly 1 in 36. The odds of two different drives failing in the same month are roughly 1 in 36 squared, or 1 in about 1,300.

The odds of three hard drives all failing in the same month are 36 cubed or 1 in 46,656. You get the picture, I'm sure.

The odds of seven different hard drives all failing in the same month (like what happened at the IRS when they received a letter from Congress asking for all the emails concerning the targeting of conservative groups) are 37 to the 7th power or 1 in 78,664,164,096 (that's more than 78 billion).

In other words, the odds are greater that you will win the Florida lottery 342 different times than having those seven IRS hard drives all crashing in the same month.

Now if we were to put this body of evidence before a jury of 12 sane people, logic would have them conclude this does not smell right at all and should be looked into.

Now if we were to put this body of evidence before 11 sane people and one liberal, we would hear from that liberal, "But, dude, it could have happened, there is a 1 in 78 billion chance it could have!"

Jack L. Reed

Stafford