THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

* AT 548 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
FLOODING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STAFFORD, FREDERICKSBURG, AQUIA CREEK, MASSAPONAX, SPOTSYLVANIA,
FALMOUTH, PASSAPATANZY, STONES CORNER, ROSEVILLE, GARRISONVILLE,
SNELL, RAMOTH, PARTLOW, GLENORA, THORNBURG, WHITE OAK, RUBY,
LEELAND, WIDEWATER AND BROKENBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

&&

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- FREDERICKSBURG

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
- PEAK WIND FORECAST: 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR WIND 39
TO 57 MPH
- THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- PLAN: PLAN FOR HAZARDOUS WIND OF EQUIVALENT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE.
- PREPARE: REMAINING EFFORTS TO PROTECT PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. PREPARE FOR LIMITED WIND
DAMAGE.
- ACT: MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THE WIND BECOMES HAZARDOUS.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES
ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN
OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: LOCALIZED STORM SURGE POSSIBLE
- PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS
- WINDOW OF CONCERN: TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SURGE FLOODING GREATER THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE GROUND
- THE STORM SURGE THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- PLAN: PLAN FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING GREATER THAN 1 FOOT
ABOVE GROUND.
- PREPARE: COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING VULNERABLE AREAS, BEFORE CONDITIONS
BECOME UNSAFE.
- ACT: LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF EVACUATION ORDERS ARE GIVEN FOR
YOUR AREA.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME
OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS
IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES,
MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS,
BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM
MOORINGS.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
- PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR
FLOODING RAIN
- THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAJOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN. EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES ARE
LIKELY.
- PREPARE: STRONGLY CONSIDER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS, ESPECIALLY
IF YOU ARE IN AN AREA VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
- ACT: HEED ANY FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FAILURE TO TAKE
ACTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: EXTENSIVE
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, ARROYOS,
AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN AREAS,
DESTRUCTIVE RUNOFF MAY RUN QUICKLY DOWN VALLEYS WHILE
INCREASING SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES.
FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR
WASHED AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER
ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF
MOVING WATER WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME DANGEROUS. MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES
- THE TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ASSESSMENT.
- PLAN: EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES.
- PREPARE: IF YOUR SHELTER IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
TORNADOES, PREPARE TO RELOCATE TO SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARRIVES.
- ACT: IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, BE READY TO SHELTER
QUICKLY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE
EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH
POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS,
CHIMNEYS TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR
OVERTURNED, LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF,
SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN
OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- HTTP://READY.GOV/HURRICANES

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS, IN VIRGINIA, ALBEMARLE, AUGUSTA, CENTRAL
VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE, CULPEPER, GREENE, MADISON, NELSON,
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE, ORANGE, PAGE, RAPPAHANNOCK,
ROCKINGHAM, SHENANDOAH, AND SPOTSYLVANIA. IN EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, HARDY.

* FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
START SPREADING NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND,
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, AND DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

**STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL,
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA, CALVERT, CARROLL, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY,
CHARLES, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, FAIRFAX, KING GEORGE, NORTHERN
BALTIMORE, NORTHWEST HARFORD, NORTHWEST HOWARD, NORTHWEST
MONTGOMERY, PRINCE GEORGES, PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS
PARK, SOUTHEAST HARFORD, SOUTHERN BALTIMORE, SPOTSYLVANIA, ST.
MARYS, AND STAFFORD

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON DC OR ABOUT 530
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MD
- 32.0N 79.4W
- STORM INTENSITY 70 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS SPREADS NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND, WHERE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE MORE
LIKELY. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND AT WASHINGTON DC SOUTHWEST
WATERFRONT ON TUESDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG OTHER
TIDAL WATERS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, ARROYOS, AND
DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN AREAS,
DESTRUCTIVE RUNOFF MAY RUN QUICKLY DOWN VALLEYS WHILE
INCREASING SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES. FLOOD
CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS
EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE
HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
- SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE MODERATE
IMPACTS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND,
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, AND DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.

FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

RAPIDLY RISING FLOOD WATERS ARE DEADLY. IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD-PRONE
AREA, CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED
ROADWAY. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, BE READY TO SHELTER
QUICKLY, PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND IN AN INTERIOR ROOM NOT
PRONE TO FLOODING. IF DRIVING, SCAN THE ROADSIDE FOR QUICK SHELTER
OPTIONS.

CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC AROUND 830 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.