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COMMENTARY: Middle East turmoil is why American oil production matters

COMMENTARY: Middle East turmoil is why American oil production matters

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middle east

A warning sign in the Golan Heights of Israel.

It’s too quiet out there, Rahman, them Ziyanist Occupiers must be up to somethin’. Hezbollah is worried. Their primary protector, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, whose major concern is keeping his lovely wife (“A Rose in the Desert” according to Vogue Magazine) supplied with Sobranie cigarettes and gilt-edged Dolce y Gabbana toilet paper, is warming to the Russians and Israelis. Israelis?

Assad needs a prophylaxis against too much Iranian influence in his Let’s Pretend It’s a Country Country. Assad is an Arab and Shia (sort of, he’s an Alawite, which is apostasy to many real Shia and the Sunni hate Shia and Arabs hate Persians). Clear?

Assad “governs” a Sunni nation. Thus, he and his daddy, have had to do a balancing act worthy of the Great Wallendas and entertain foreign support for his house of cards “government.” To keep the Sunni Syrian rebels from storming his palace, Bashar has allowed Russia to turn the Syrian coast into a Russian naval and air base.

The Russians thus get a lot of experience bombing loosely organized mobs of Sunnis who have no air defense. Russia can also pretend that it has a warm water naval base that outflanks Turkey.

Israel does not care how much Russia wastes on Syria, because Turkey is Russia’s real enemy in the region. Russia has been trying to take out Turkey since the days of the Kievan Rus. Twelve-hundred years of conflict to own Turkey’s Bosporus Strait with no success, so far. Thus, the Syrian naval/air bases are more of a threat to Turkey than anyone, and Israel is real happy about that.

Iran likes to think that Assad the sort-of Shia is their buddy, and he defers to Iran to a degree because they used to give him much-needed arms and Kamikaze fighters to keep the rowdy Sunnis at bay. However, Iran has been cash poor for some time, and Russia, Assad’s real protector, is no friend of Iran’s. The kamikaze Shia Iranian-sponsored fighters also got tired of being used for target practice by everyone in the neighborhood.

Israel is no friend of Iran’s either. Iran conveniently provides Israel with free bombing practice by trying to arm their principal Syrian client, Shia Hezbollah, which operates in Syrian and Lebanon. Russia is OK with Israeli missile and air attacks in Syria so long as Israel gives enough warning so Russia can get their assets out of the way so they don’t get smoked.

Also, Russia does not want the world to know that Israel flits in and out of Russian air defense zones with impunity. Russia wants the world to fear, respect and buy its anti-air missiles which have proved useless against Israeli attacks.

My predictions: The real war is between Russia and Turkey, and it will flare up eventually. Syria will quietly cooperate with Israel so long as Assad can keep his shaky throne occupied. Lebanon is already disintegrating into civil war. Iran will do all possible to keep the entire region destabilized.

If you think you are going to freeze in the dark due to President Joe Biden’s energy policies, you ain’t seen nothing yet if this Sunni/Shia Arab/Turk/Persian war disrupts oil production and shipping in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. needs to resume its place as the world’s leading oil producer.

Bob Sargeant is a semi-retired defense analyst who lives in Spotsylvania.

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